Contextual Exposure to Wartime Violence and Support for Democracy: Evidence From a Natural Experiment in Colombia

How does contextual exposure to wartime violence affect individual support for democracy? A substantial body of research suggests that conflict victimization may positively influence political participation and civic engagement. However, most research has focused on direct victimization and does not provide evidence on whether contextual exposure to wartime violence—the most prevalent form of exposure—influences support for democracy. Leveraging a natural experiment induced by exogenous shocks in military spending and municipalities' proximity to natural protected areas, I find that living in localities affected by rebel violence has contrasting and sizable effects on different dimensions of regime support in Colombia: it considerably increases the probability that citizens prefer democratic rule over other forms of government but reduces the likelihood that they are satisfied with how democracy works. These findings challenge dominant views about the determinants of regime support, underscoring the opportunities and challenges facing democratic consolidation in war-torn societies.